Saturday 09 Oct 2021 | 18:52 | SYDNEY
Saturday 09 Oct 2021 | 18:52 | SYDNEY

Boeing and Airbus roll the dice


Sam Roggeveen


21 September 2011 13:45

Our readers in the intelligence community should feel reassured that they are not the only ones who struggle to predict future events. For senior managers in the world's two big aviation concerns, Boeing and Airbus, it must awfully disconcerting to learn that their respective business analysts have come to such dramatically different conclusions about where the industry is heading:

Airbus Monday predicted that airlines and leasing companies will buy 1,781 of the largest airliners by 2030 — more than twice Boeing’s forecast for the “Very Large Aircraft” segment...Airbus’ forecast, in the annual update to its Global Market Forecast, is up from 1,738 last year. Boeing expects sales of just 820 very large commercial jets.

There might be an element of selection bias at play here, with Airbus having invested in big jets and Boeing taking a different approach:

Airbus has bet big on this segment with its double-decker A380, the largest commercial airliner in production. Boeing has responded with an updated, stretched 747, the 747-8, but sees more demand for smaller airplanes flying more routes, rather than big ones flying between major hubs.

Maybe each company just sees the market it wants to see, but they can't both be right.

Photo by Flickr user Individuo.