By
27 July 2011 15:10
I think the Malaysia asylum-seeker swap is good policy. It is another small step towards a long-term regional solution to the problem. There are, however, a number of big assumptions built into the agreement:
- Asylum seekers will learn about the deal, and decide it isn't worth risking their lives heading to Australia if they will be automatically sent back to Malaysia.
- This attitude will persist beyond the 800 who are instantly returned under the terms of the deal, permanently deterring people smuggling (rather than just causing a short-term reduction).
- Granting exemptions to the return of the young and elderly would have encouraged people smugglers to pack more of them onto boats to Australia.
- Malaysia can exercise some control, all the way down to street-level police officers, to protect those sent back.
- The Australian public will come to see the swap as providing a certainty and control to the process (all 4000 arrivals we take as part of the swap will be UNHCR-approved).
- Other countries in the region will endorse the swap as a way to address their biggest problem (sheer numbers), and will seek to participate.
All of those assumptions can be challenged. Right now the Government is taking heat over Number #3, but #1 and #5 are more important, and in both cases, the mechanism for a shift in attitudes isn't clear. Number #4 presents the biggest long-term risk to the deal, while #6 is the biggest opportunity.
And you know what they say about assumptions...
Photo by Flickr user UN Photo.