Friday 08 Oct 2021 | 02:34 | SYDNEY
Friday 08 Oct 2021 | 02:34 | SYDNEY

Asian optimism and global pessimism


Mark Thirlwell

15 May 2009 12:46

Earlier this week I discussed how official forecasters for the region reckoned that any sustained Asian recovery was conditional on growth recovering in the developed world. For a different take on the issue, see this story in this week’s Economist, which cites some more optimistic views, focusing on the possibility of a rapid turnaround in the manufacturing sector, the size of Asia’s fiscal stimulus and the healthier state of private sector balance-sheets in the region.

To balance The Economist’s optimism, here is a piece from Ken Rogoff arguing that once the global recovery does arrive, the ‘new normal’ for global growth is likely to be appreciably lower than the ‘old normal’ of the 2002-2007 boom period. As Rogoff notes, a fall in trend world growth would have important implications for all sorts of things, including the environment, income equality, stability, government revenues, and corporate profits (and hence share prices and the value of retirement portfolios).

Photo by Flickr user Archangel27, used under a Creative Commons license.