Wednesday 06 Oct 2021 | 20:25 | SYDNEY
Wednesday 06 Oct 2021 | 20:25 | SYDNEY

5-min Lowy Lunch: Predicting genocide


Sam Roggeveen


8 May 2012 17:09

Last Wednesday Sydney University academic Ben Goldsmith presented to the Lowy Institute his research on forecasting genocides.

After examining data from the early 70s onward, Goldsmith and his fellow researchers found four key factors that determine countries at high risk of genocide: infant mortality, the incidence of previous genocides or 'politicides', the percentage of the population serving in the military, and the incidence of political assassination.

Here's Ben's full presentation, and below is a short interview.

Photo, of the Rwanda Genocide Memorial, by Flickr user dw_globalideas.