Commentary | 08 September 2010

Decisions and destinies: Asian security in 2010

In the Lowy Institute’s third Asia security 'Strategic Snapshot', Program Director for International Security Rory Medcalf assesses how recent security choices in Asia – especially at sea – could have long-term consequences for peace or conflict. Looking at recent events in light of Power and Choice, the Lowy Institute’s flagship report on alternative Asian security futures, Mr Medcalf warns that a more assertive Chinese maritime posture is not being matched with the kind of dialogue and practical confidence-building measures needed to minimise risks of confrontation. At the same time, powerful states remain unlikely to invest regional institutions – even an expanded East Asia Summit and a new defence ministers’ meeting – with real scope to manage the strategic challenges of the South China Sea or the Korean Peninsula. Across the Indo-Pacific, the use and threat of force in major-power relations has not gone away.Rory Medcalf

  • Rory Medcalf

In the Lowy Institute’s third Asia security 'Strategic Snapshot', Program Director for International Security Rory Medcalf assesses how recent security choices in Asia – especially at sea – could have long-term consequences for peace or conflict. Looking at recent events in light of Power and Choice, the Lowy Institute’s flagship report on alternative Asian security futures, Mr Medcalf warns that a more assertive Chinese maritime posture is not being matched with the kind of dialogue and practical confidence-building measures needed to minimise risks of confrontation. At the same time, powerful states remain unlikely to invest regional institutions – even an expanded East Asia Summit and a new defence ministers’ meeting – with real scope to manage the strategic challenges of the South China Sea or the Korean Peninsula. Across the Indo-Pacific, the use and threat of force in major-power relations has not gone away.Rory Medcalf