Tuesday 16 Aug 2022 | 05:40 | SYDNEY
People | experts Stephen Grenville
Nonresident Fellow
Lowy Institute
Areas of ExpertiseRegional economic integration; Australia's economic relations with East Asia; international financial flows and the global financial architecture; financial sector development in East Asia

Why wait for uniform banking rules?

Globalisation puts pressure on countries to adopt internationally uniform economic rules, so that international interactions are as frictionless as possible. This is Tom Friedman's 'golden straitjacket': sometimes inconvenient, but in the long run usually beneficial. From time to time, though, 

How to make the G20 irrelevant

Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, has made good contributions over the years to the debate on international financial institutions (the International Monetary Fund, World Bank etc). But an aside in his latest speech is off-track. King observes that the G20 is the best forum for

Exchange rates: To float or to fix?

I'm glad Mark has put exchange rates on the Lowy blog agenda. With the severe damage that the Global Financial Crisis has done to the credibility of the efficient markets hypothesis, it's time to look at exchange rates again. Even the International Monetary Fund (typically ten years behind in its

Why securitisation should secure a revival

In an Economic Briefing in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville argues that securitisation can be revived, but it should be done with a great deal of care. Australian Financial Review, 7 December 2009, p. 21

Fixing the banks

In an article in the Review section of The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville examines the proposition of greater regulation of the financial sector. Australian Financial Review, 27 November 2009, pp S1, S6

Risk of failure helps keep banks honest

In an Economic Briefing in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville writes that banks have added gaming-like functions to their essential core services. Australian Financial Review, 9 November 2009, p. 20

Lessons from Brazil capital inflow tax

In an opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville argues that the Brazilian approach to exchange rate pressures is a variant on an old theme. Australian Financisal Review, 4 November 2009, p. 63

A G-20 caucus for East Asia

In September 2009, the Pittsburgh Summit designated the G-20 as the world’s premier forum for international cooperation. The G-20 gives East Asia a significant presence at the top table of the world economy: six regional economies, including Australia, are members

Deep thinking needed to safeguard the system

In an Economic Briefing in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville warns that there are no US reforms in the pipeline that will prevent another financial crisis. Australian Financial Review, 12 October 2009, p. 20

G20 needs to drive the adjustment process

In an Economic Briefing in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville argues that a new, more ambitious Plaza Accord should be on table at the forthcoming Group of 20 leaders' meeting in Pittsburgh. Australian Financial Review, 14 Septemebr 2009, p. 20

Some perspective on Balibo

One view is that morality demands that the Australian Government do everything possible to seek justice for the journalists killed in Timor in 1975. To give the other side of the argument puts one in the position of the Jack Nicholson character in A Few Good Men: defending the indefensible. But,

Excess bank reserves won't inflate system

In an Economic Briefing in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville argues that the world's central banks can print money and still control inflation. Australian Financial Review, 17 August 2009, p. 20

Only unpopular reform will make system safer

In an Economic Briefing in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville writes that politicians and taxpayers must get the recalcitrant financial sector into line. Australian Financial Review, 20 July 2009, p. 20

The GFC blame game: China or Wall St?

The belief that the world ‘savings glut’ played a key role in the global financial crisis has become part of the received wisdom — excess savings are said to have pushed down world interest rates and encouraged excessive lending. First put forward by Ben Bernanke (now Fed Chairman) in 2005

No need to fear rates this time

In an Economic Briefing in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville writes that markets expect interest rates to rise next year but that doesn't mean inflation is about to take off. Australian Financial Review, 15 June 2009, p. 20

International imbalances and international policy coordination

In a new Lowy Institute Perspective, Dr Stephen Grenville looks at the role of external imbalances and international capital flows in the global financial crisis. He argues that whether or not these imbalances were a major factor in explaining the current crisis, capital flows have often enough

The epidemiology of the global financial crisis

It's not often that we see interdisciplinary research actually work, but here is an example. Andrew Haldane, Executive Director at the Bank of England (and easily the most interesting central banker writing about the global financial crisis) draws on Bill Bowtell's Lowy Institute papers to

Don't blame China for the economic downturn

Lowy Institute visiting fellow Stephen Grenville argues that the international financial system should link nations seeking investment with those which have accumulated savings, to provide a buffer against future global financial crises. Australian Financial Review, 27 April 2009, p. 20

G20 and the International Monetary Fund

Perhaps the biggest winner from the London G20 leaders’ meeting was the IMF. Business has been slow for the IMF since the Asian crisis: it's been short of both customers and funds. Now, in one hit, its resources have been increased three-fold. This seems sensible, even essential, but other

G20 priority for Australia: 'Being there'

For Australia, the main 'win' from the London G20 meeting is that the G20 leaders will meet again, together with the wide acceptance that this group has supplanted the G7 as the principal world economic forum. A top priority is to retain our place at the table. The more successful the London meeting

If things are that bad, nationalise the banks

In an opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville argues that the US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is sucking on a lemon with his toxic assets plan. Australian Financial Review, 30 March 2009, p. 20

Refining the G-20 agenda

The G-20 Leaders will meet in London in April, faced by the most serious economic downturn for seventy years. The London agenda bears two heavy burdens

Animal spirits tamed in forlorn US

In an opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville asks why the brakes are on in the US economy while zero interest rates should be putting a rocket under demand. Australian Financial Review, 2 March 2009, p. 55

Increase IMF capacity, replace its uselsss bosses

In an opinion piece in the Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville argues that Australia should seek deeper reform of the International Monetary Fund. Australian Financial Review, 23 February 2009, p. 20

Urgent need for new international forum

In an opinion piece on the international financial crisis in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville argues that much needs to be resolved if big nations are to shrink their imbalances smoothly. Australian Financial Review, 7-8 February 2009, p. 62

Banks: Fun and mischief with graphs

The bank graph Sam linked to yesterday may be 'neat', but it caused a flood of complaints to FT's Alphaville blog because it uses one of the '101 Ways to be Misleading with Graphs'. In this case, the eye reads the area, whereas the data is proportional to the circumference of

Helping Indonesia to help ourselves

So Indonesia has requested budget assistance from Australia. Whatever we might provide will be relatively small compared with the magnitude of the problem, so we have a choice: to go bilaterally and put our own 'label' on what will inevitably be seen as a modest amount, or join a larger

Australia, East Asia and the current financial crisis

In a new Analysis, Dr Stephen Grenville argues that as the international crisis begins to impinge more strongly on Asia, one of the potential protective responses – the Chiang Mai Initiative – needs some tweaking to make it politically acceptable for countries which need it. Australia might be

The benefits of a diminished APEC

There is a view that the creation of the G20 leaders meeting will diminish the role of APEC. There will be some resistance to this idea among Canberra’s long-standing APEC aficionados, but it might not work out too badly for Australia. Let’s leave to another day the debate about whether APEC has

Australia position at the G-20

Dr Michael Fullilove and Dr Stephen Grenville contributed a comment about the forthcoming Washington G-20 meeting to an online forum hosted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Brookings Institution. The forum is available here:www.thechicagocouncil.org/g20forumhttp://www.brookings.edu/

G20: The case for Australia

Just what is World Bank President Robert Zoellick up to? He attended the G20 meeting in Brazil over the weekend, only to argue that this is the wrong grouping and should be replaced by a more exclusive gathering. To say the least, this is an unhelpful intervention, not just for Australia (which

Lenders of last resort may well lose balance

In an opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville argues that saving the banks and their shadows has not solved the deeper problem of the financial system. Australian Financial Review, 27 October 2008, p. 25

Soothing platitudes don't save the world

In an opinion piece in the Australian Financial Review, Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville discusses the annual meeting of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, and his view on the role for co-ordinated international action. Australian Financial Review, 13 October 2008, p.17

Who to blame for the financial crisis?

The US Treasury’s former attack-dog, Ted Truman, has now got his jaws around another Inconvenient Truth: that the world’s current financial problems not only have their epicenter in the US but can be largely sheeted home to US deficiencies. Truman wants to argue that the blame is widely

World gatherings a distraction from domestic chores

There had been much eager anticipation that the G7 would come up with some coordinated action to fix the financial melt-down. Noted US economist Paul Krugman said 'now is the time for major action'. On Friday G7 met, agreed that 'urgent and exceptional action' is required, and…

Zoellick is wrong about the G20

World Bank President Bob Zoellick seems well outside his allocated territory in his speech on modernizing multilateral economic institutions. When Wayne Swan meets him at the Annual Meetings in Washington next week, he might ask him who he speaks for in writing off G20 as 'unwieldy'

How linked are global financial markets?

In a globalised world, financial markets are a potent transmission channel from the US to the rest of us. Indeed, our stock market responds more to the US than to our domestic fundamentals. At first sight, last week’s policy mimicry might also suggest that the problems are the same.

Stephen Grenville opinion piece

In an opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville argues that getting the foreign investment rules right is the best way to deal with sovereign wealth funds. Australian Financial Review, 20 September 2008, p. 23

Indonesian corruption

Ross McLeod is surely right to say that the Indonesian anti-corruption push is home-grown, and has popular support. So much so that, if SBY showed decisive follow-though on current high-profile cases, he would probably bolster his chances considerably for victory in next year’s presidential

Rudd at the UN: Support for G20 welcome

Kevin Rudd’s speech to the UN General Assembly set out some specifics for reforming the international financial system. It’s good to see him plugging the G20 as the centre-piece of this agenda. He was diplomatic enough not to draw attention to the irrelevance of the UN’s own specialized

US sneezes, but we're not catching cold...yet

We can argue about whether or not the Australian financial system is 'light years' away from the US problems (is the relevant issue distance or dollars?), but it is certainly very different. If the key real-sector problem in the USA was home-loans to NINJAs (No Income, No Job or Assets),

Overcoming corruption is Indonesia challenge

In an opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville, writing that there are hints that Indonesia may finally be starting to deal with its culture of bribery, offers suggestions for change.Australian Financial Review, 25 August 2008, p. 23

Justice and corruption in Indonesia

Key aspects of the Indonesian legal process are being tested in ways that could have important implications for the operation of justice, for parliamentary process and for corruption. Will members of the Indonesian Parliament (including two of SBY’s Ministers) be brought to account for receiving

Reform a balancing act for Indonesians

In an Economic Briefing in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville writes that Indonesia is quietly making progress, but could benefit from friendly advice and encouragement.Australian Financial Review, 28 July 2008, p. 23

Don't look now, but Indonesia making progress

Indonesia’s quiet progress over the past five years has gone largely unnoticed. The economy is back on an even keel, security problems in Aceh have been largely resolved, and there has been an amazing transition to democracy. There has even been progress in tackling corruption, even if this has

Does monetary policy still work?

In an opinion piece in Australian Financial Review, Stephen Grenville suggests that whilst central banks are better equipped than in the '70s, monetary policy is still an imprecise and blunt instrument wielded by fallible humans, and now the environment in which it operates is far trickier

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