Tuesday 18 Dec 2018 | 09:48 | SYDNEY

Analyses

Understand the big issues

Ambition: the emerging foreign policy of the Rudd Government

In a new Lowy Institute Analysis entitled 'Ambition: the emerging foreign policy of the Rudd Government', Lowy Institute Executive Director Allan Gyngell explores what we have learned about the Rudd Government's emerging foreign policy, about the Prime Minister's own contributions to it and what

Australia, East Asia and the current financial crisis

In a new Analysis, Dr Stephen Grenville argues that as the international crisis begins to impinge more strongly on Asia, one of the potential protective responses – the Chiang Mai Initiative – needs some tweaking to make it politically acceptable for countries which need it. Australia might be

Expecting the unexpected

To estimate the emissions reductions and costs of a climate policy, analysts usually compare a policy scenario with a baseline scenario of future economic conditions without the policy. Both scenarios require assumptions about the future course of numerous factors such as population growth,

Bad moon not rising: the myth of the Shi'a crescent

Accusations that a Shi'a crescent is emerging in the Arab world following the rise of a Shi'a government in Iraq and the actions of Hizbullah in Lebanon, have provoked much discussion and highlighted fears of Iran's co-religionists gaining political power at the expense of the traditional Sunni

After Doha: the search for Plan B

The Doha round of world trade talks has collapsed. After the negotiations were suspended back in July 2006, Mark Thirlwell wrote that – regardless of the ultimate outcome of the Round – the era of giant, set-piece trade negotiations like Doha and its predecessor, the Uruguay Round, was over. The

The dragon looks south

China refuses to release figures on the size of its aid program. In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, Fergus Hanson takes a region-wide look at the scale of China’s aid program, revealing a dramatic increase in aid pledges since 2005

China Olympic challenge

With the troubled Olympic Torch coming to Canberra next week, the Beijing Olympics and what it means for China will be centre stage in Australia

Hesitating on the brink of partnership

In this piece for the East-West Center, Washington, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that Australia and India are hesitating at the brink of real partnership in their strategic relations. It will take sustained political will on both sides over the next few years to bring

Central banks and capital flows

Sudden capital outflows were at the heart of the 1997-8 Asian Crisis. Ten years later, capital flows are back on the policy agenda, but in a very different context. The countries of East Asia are now getting more inflows than they can effectively absorb and the upward pressure on exchange rates is

India should play its part

In this article in new Indian publication Pragati ('Progress'), International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that Australia alone cannot do all the running in building a strategic partnership with India

More second thoughts

Earlier this year in Lowy Institute Paper 18, 'Second thoughts on globalisation', Mark Thirlwell looked at how the globalisation-powered rise of China and India was disconcerting some in the developed world, and prompting a re-evaluation of the costs and benefits of globalisation. This Lowy

Ten years after the Asian Crisis

In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Dr Stephen Grenville looks back at the decade-old Asian financial crisis in search of insights on current vulnerabilities. 

Sensible climate policy

The release of the report by the Prime Ministerial Task Group on Emissions Trading has received a lot of attention. The broad philosophy of that report is based on the McKibbin-Wilcoxen Blueprint, an approach developed by the Lowy Insitute's Professorial Fellow, Warwick McKibbin and Professor Peter

The European Union and China

In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Roberto Menotti of the Aspen Institute Italia examines the European Union's policy responses to the rise of China. The EU is a newcomer to East Asian affairs, but its stake in the region is growing rapidly in light of China's economic clout. 

After Doha: II. Is globalisation history?

Reflecting on the repeated failure of the Doha Round of international trade negotiations, this paper takes a look back at the stresses and strains that afflicted an earlier globalisation episode to look for lessons about the current difficulties facing economic liberalisation

After Doha: I. The search for Plan B

In a Lowy Institute Analysis, Mark Thirlwell argues that while the suspension of negotiations in late July may or may not mark the end of the Doha Round, it will almost certainly mark a watershed for the international trading system. 

Roaring tiger or lumbering elephant?

After years of economic underperformance, the Indian economic model has been transformed, and with it, India's growth performance. So much so that the last two years have brought both a widespread rethink on India’s prospects and a wave of foreign portfolio investment. 

Koizumi legacy: Japan new politics

In a Lowy Institute Analysis, Dr Malcolm Cook evaluates Prime Minister Koizumi's legacy for Japanese politics and international policy. Koizumi has rebuilt the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, moved the Japanese political system significantly to the right and reprioritised Japan's international

Fuelling confrontation: Iran, the US and the oil weapon

In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, Anthony Bubalo, Michael Fullilove and Mark Thirlwell explore the prospect and implications of Iran's using oil as a weapon in its current confrontation with the international community over the nuclear issue

The testament of Solomons: RAMSI and international state-building

The unrest in Honiara of 18-19 April underlines the fragility of Solomon Islands as well as the sheer difficulty of rebuilding weak states. The background to and key features of the Australian-led Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI) were set out in this March 2006 Analysis by Dr

Environmental consequences of rising energy use in China

The emergence of China as an economic power has important implications for energy use and environmental outcomes at the local, regional and global levels. China is currently the world's third largest energy producer and the second largest energy consumer. 

The global macroeconomic consequences of a demographic transition

The world is in the midst of a significant demographic transition with important implications for the macroeconomic performance of the global economy. This paper summarises the key features of the current and projected future demographic changes that are likely to have macroeconomic effects.&

The global impact of demographic change

This paper examines the implications of the major demographic transition currently under way and over the next 80 years for Japan, the United States, the rest of the OECD, and developing regions. 

Global demographic change and Japanese macroeconomic performance

The world is in the midst of a significant demographic transition with important implications for the macroeconomic performance of the global economy. This paper summarises the key features of the current and projected future demographic changes that are likely to have macroeconomic effects. It then

Convergence and per capita carbon emissions

In a new Working Paper in International Economics, Professor Warwick McKibbin and Alison Stegman write that assumptions about carbon emissions per person lie behind many future climate projections as well as being the basis of a number of policy proposals. 

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